Indonesia Energy-Shock — System-Dynamics Model

Interactive companion to “Far Away Conflict, Jakarta’s Budget” (Geopolitics Series #1, Landscape Advisory). Move the oil prices or the parameters; the table and the 24-month trajectories update live.

baseline (col 1) scenario 1 scenario 2

Baseline oil ($70/bbl)

Scenario 1 ($100/bbl)

Scenario 2 ($150/bbl)

Model parameters (advanced — illustrative elasticities, calibrated so scenario 1 near $100 reproduces mid-2026)

Rupiah depreciation per $1 oil, 0.24%

FX pass-through to CPI, 0.07

Subsidy per $1 oil, Rp9.0 tn

Fiscal offset per $1 oil, Rp2.5 tn

Rate defense (claw-back /ppt), 1.30%

Horizon, 24 months

Table — equilibrium levels by oil price

Trajectories — dynamic response over the horizon

Read me. The baseline anchors are actual pre-war / 2026-budget settings; the structural coefficients are illustrative, chosen so scenario 1 (near $100) reproduces the conditions Indonesia was observing in mid-2026. This is a scenario/teaching model showing the shape and relative magnitude of the dynamics, not a validated forecast — the higher scenario is an extrapolation. The model holds subsidized fuel and LPG prices fixed, so the fiscal-deficit figures are the budgetary burden before any offsetting price increase. Feedback loops: B1 monetary stabilization, B2 currency defense (both balancing); R1 fiscal–growth (reinforcing).

Self-contained: save this file and open it in any browser, online or offline. No data leaves the page.