UNFCCC COP31, Antalya, Turkiye, 9 to 20 November 2026: the issues, our analysis and publications, and updates from the conference.
The 31st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meets in Antalya, Turkiye, from 9 to 20 November 2026, with the World Leaders’ Summit on 11 and 12 November.
Turkiye hosts and holds the presidency, with Australia presiding over the negotiations; the pre-COP ministerial meeting was held in Fiji from 5 to 8 October. After Belém, the presidency frames Antalya as an implementation COP: turning national climate plans (NDCs) and finance pledges into delivery.
Our work at COP31 follows the issues that decide how Indonesia’s climate commitments are financed and delivered.
Carbon markets and Article 6: rules for authorized units, corresponding adjustments and the Article 6.4 mechanism, and how they meet Indonesia’s new framework under Perpres 110/2025. Implementation of the NDCs: the Second NDC targets and the policies behind them.
Finance: the flows that reach countries and communities, and how risk is priced. Forests, peat and fire: the 2026 fire season, El Niño and La Nina, and what they mean for the forestry sector’s net sink. Energy transition: coal retirement, transition credits and renewables.
The run-up to Antalya has shifted the conversation from setting targets to delivering them.
The Pre-COP ministerial in Nadi, Fiji, closed on 8 October with new commitments to the Pacific Resilience Facility, and Pacific leaders adopted the Taku Pakasoa Declaration, asking COP31 for deeper emission cuts, finance that reaches communities and more attention to the ocean. The Turkish Presidency has framed Antalya as an implementation COP, built around its Climate Implementation Bridge to turn national plans into financeable projects.
Commentators expect the same emphasis in the negotiations. UNU-EHS sets out five expectations as attention moves from targets to implementation after Belém, and representatives of the last three presidencies discussed how to restore trust by turning commitments into action as climate disasters mount. Day-to-day coverage continues in COP31 360 below.
Agus Sari, Chief Executive Officer of The Landscape Group, will be at COP31 from 9 to 13 November 2026.
He co-chaired the UNFCCC Work Program on REDD+ Finance and was a Lead Author with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 2001 to 2007. To arrange a meeting in Antalya, write to info@landscape.id.
A ministerial event organized by ICGD and IETA at the IETA Business Hub on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, from 10:00 to 11:30, marked one year of Perpres 110/2025, the legal basis for Indonesia’s carbon market.
Speakers included Eddy Soeparno, Vice Chair of the People’s Consultative Assembly; Ary Sudijanto of the Ministry of Environment; Edo Mahendra of the Ministry of Forestry; Pahala Mansury of Danantara; Anton Tsvetov of ICVCM; Flora Ji of Rubicon Carbon; and Hashim Djojohadikusumo, the President’s Special Envoy for Climate and Energy. ICVCM reported that credits with the Core Carbon Principles label sell at premiums of about 15 to 25 percent. Paul Butarbutar’s team opened its High Integrity Principles for Indonesia, 10 principles under three pillars, to international comment. The ministries set out a year of progress, from the SRUK registry to 31.7 million tons of legacy forest credits, and an Article 6 regulation expected before the end of 2026.
Later the same day, at 14:00, “Southeast Asia Energy Transition under Energy Security Concerns” was co-organized by the Center for Global Sustainability of the University of Maryland, IESR, ICGD and The Landscape Group.
Nate Hultman of CGS UMD gave the keynote and Ryna Cui of CGS UMD moderated a panel of Fabby Tumiwa of IESR, Ardhi Wardhana of ICGD, Agus Sari of The Landscape Group and Jiehong Lou of CGS UMD. Agus Sari’s remarks drew on a Landscape Advisory model: at $100 oil, Indonesia’s fixed fuel prices push the subsidy bill up by about Rp270 trillion and the budget deficit to 3.4 percent of GDP, above the legal ceiling. He argued for importing less fuel through safeguarded biofuel and, above all, solar with batteries on diesel-dependent islands, backed by power market reform, published island-level diesel costs and regional cooperation on grids and clean energy equipment.
Energy Transition under Energy Security Concerns — at $100 oil, fixed fuel prices push Indonesia’s deficit to 3.4 percent of GDP; replacing imported diesel with solar on the islands is energy security policy as much as climate policy.
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From Regulation to Market — one year of Perpres 110/2025 at COP31: CCP-labeled credits sell at 15 to 25 percent premiums, the High Integrity Principles for Indonesia open for comment, and an Article 6 regulation expected by year-end.
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Carbon Markets at COP31 — the Article 6 rulebook is finished; Antalya decides how to fund the system and check its quality, with integrity issues found in all 13 country reports reviewed so far.
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The Stakes in Antalya — the three unfinished deals at COP31, a 16 Gt CO2e emissions gap in 2035, and what the outcome means for Indonesia’s $472.6 billion transition.
Download →News and published material on the road to Antalya, from global and Indonesian sources.
Two weeks before Antalya, UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report says warming will pass 1.5°C and sets out cuts of 18 percent by 2030 and 45 percent by 2035 to bring it back by 2100. The Presidency is framing COP31 around implementation, with an Action Agenda of electrification, waste and resilient cities, while finance, adaptation finance, loss and damage and fossil fuel language remain open in the negotiations.
Indonesia goes with “Delivering Climate Solutions at Scale,” led by Hashim Djojohadikusumo. It will present SRUK, rice self-sufficiency without forest clearing, 12.3 million hectares of forest rehabilitation and a draft climate justice law, and it is a pilot country for the Presidency’s BRIDGE finance initiative. It arrives during its worst fire season in a decade.
Two days of speeches left negotiators with incompatible national positions; Bowen says he will steer consensus to the strongest outcome the process allows.
Erdoğan told the Business Forum the conference aims to turn commitments into results; leaders broadly supported the Bridge to improve finance access for vulnerable countries.
The opening ceremony began an hour and a half late, and Guterres urged leaders to “get serious” after a year of extreme weather.
Finance, trade and responsibility again divided negotiating blocs before the agenda was adopted.
Murat Kurum was appointed COP31 President and Chris Bowen leads the negotiations; around 68,500 delegates from more than 190 countries are taking part.
Released on the opening day: each of the past 12 years was among the warmest on record, with the most recent four the hottest.
The Article 6 rulebook is finished; Antalya decides how to fund the registry and expert reviews, which face an $8 million to $9 million shortfall, and how to act on integrity issues found in all 13 country reports reviewed so far.
Brazil’s president will attend the summit; experts again see a fossil fuel phase-out deal as unlikely amid pressure from the war in the Middle East.
Türkiye will deploy 26,000 security personnel; 200 to 300 ministers and up to 100,000 daily visitors are expected.
The Presidency launched a compact with six areas for action to bring building efficiency into national climate and development strategies.
The report’s lowest-overshoot path limits peak warming to 1.7–1.8°C and returns to 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50 percent chance. That needs emissions 18 percent below 2025 levels by 2030 and 45 percent by 2035; current policies point to 2.8°C this century.
A briefing on how the Strait of Hormuz crisis, wider conflicts and El Niño may shape progress on implementation when negotiators meet in Antalya.
Türkiye’s non-negotiated Action Agenda targets 35 percent electrification by 2035, halving the growth in waste generation, a 25 percent cut in building energy intensity, and an expanded Climate Implementation Bridge for NDC project portfolios.
The incoming COP31 Presidency and the Australian President of Negotiations held virtual consultations with heads of delegation on 14 October, following the Pre-COP ministerial in Fiji and leaders’ event in Tuvalu from 5 to 8 October.
Climate finance, adaptation finance, the Loss and Damage Fund and language on moving away from fossil fuels remain on the formal agenda, alongside the goal of $1.3 trillion a year in climate finance by 2035.
Funding constraints are delaying the systems that check country reporting and run technical reviews under Article 6.2; the registry is due to launch by year-end.
Norway will buy up to 12 Mt CO2e from PLN solar projects by 2038, at $20 to $40 per tonne, through GGGI’s Carbon Transaction Facility and Norway’s NACA Fund. Signed at the Indonesia Pavilion on 11 November; it follows the expression of intent signed at COP30.
The fifth results-based contribution brings Norway’s total to $316 million; Ecobiz reports the price rose to $10 per tonne CO2e.
Hashim used the Leaders’ Summit to urge developed countries to meet their finance targets.
The ICGD–IETA ministerial event at the IETA Business Hub on the market case for integrity, the High Integrity Principles for Indonesia and the Article 6 pathway.
Projects from forestry to energy are on offer; Hashim said the President’s policy is to keep strengthening the national carbon market ecosystem.
Three priorities: climate resilience, collaborative action and a strategic path to net zero. Environment Minister Jumhur Hidayat called the pavilion a key instrument of climate diplomacy.
Hashim said conservation must move beyond short-term projects to a lasting financing system that brings together government, business, philanthropy and international partners.
Indonesia arrives with a Second NDC that peaks emissions in 2030, a regulated carbon market and an investment need of about $472.6 billion; rules agreed in Antalya on finance, coal transition and land use shape how that plan is paid for.
Presidential envoy Hashim Djojohadikusumo will lead Indonesia’s delegation. Its priorities include accessible climate finance, Article 6 and carbon market integrity, adaptation for islands and coasts, just transition, technology transfer and nature-based solutions, with 12.3 million hectares of forest rehabilitation offered for international support.
Hashim said the carbon unit registry would be among the achievements presented, and that investor interest rose after the government said it no longer needs to expand rice fields into primary forest.
The draft law on just climate change control covers mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage and the protection of climate defenders. Environment Minister Jumhur Hidayat presented it as an initiative awaited internationally.
Indonesia reports reductions of 775.97 Mt CO2e against its baseline, 34.16 percent. The piece argues Antalya needs evidence of past cuts, funding sources, project delivery and community benefits.
The Climate Implementation Bridge will work with Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Pakistan and Uzbekistan to turn NDC priorities into investment-ready projects and address bottlenecks in accessing international finance.
Updated with each Monitor 360 scan. Wider climate and carbon market news is in Weekly 360 and Carbon Market 360.
Landscape 360, 4 November 2026: what COP31 settles on Article 6 carbon markets, from funding for the registry and expert reviews to the CDM transition, and the stake for Indonesia.
Landscape 360, 4 November 2026: what is on the table in Antalya, where each issue stood after Bonn, and what the outcome means for Indonesia.
Our outlooks and fact sheets, including the 2026 fire season, El Niño and carbon projects.
Market updates on carbon pricing and trading, globally and in Indonesia, including Article 6.
The instruments that govern carbon pricing and trading in Indonesia.
Weekly news on climate, carbon markets, forests and the economy; COP31 coverage appears under Climate Change.
Our other events, including the October 2026 guest lecture on jurisdictional crediting for the power sector.