What the series is
Two publication lines run under Landscape 360, on different clocks and for different purposes.
The Outlook appears twice a year. It takes the half-year as a whole and asks what changed in the conditions the Group works under — energy prices and supply, the climate signal, the state of the carbon market, the fiscal position — and what those changes imply for the next six months. Each edition is dated by half-year and numbered accordingly.
The Occasional Fact Sheets appear when an event warrants them. They are short, tightly scoped, and built on a named dataset, so a reader can check the figures rather than take them on trust. The 2026 fire season accounts for the current run.
Both are published without charge, and both state their data sources and assumptions in the document.
Fire in the Carbon Projects
How the 2026 fires cut Indonesia’s carbon credits.
We laid the boundaries of the 39 carbon projects filed with Verra over 1.28 million SiPongi hotspots to October 20. The projects cover 1.86 million hectares, 1.0 percent of Indonesia’s land, and took 2.0 percent of the hotspots; 29 of them had fire inside. We estimate 44,700 hectares burned inside the projects, releasing 16.7 million tonnes of CO2e (within 3.3 to 30.0 million), 94 percent of it from peat and 96 percent in Central and West Kalimantan. That equals 45 percent of a year of the credits the burned projects expect, about $142 million at $8.50 a tonne.
Verra’s buffer shares in these projects run from 10 to 18 percent, a median of 12, which would cover 4.4 million tonnes, about a quarter of the loss. Only 5 of the 29 burned projects state a firefighting capacity in numbers and none states a fire budget. The fact sheet sets out a prevention agenda: a fire standard for carbon projects under Permenhut 6/2026, wet peat, work beyond the boundary, buffers priced to observed losses, and readiness triggered by the El Niño forecast.
The 2026 El Niño near its peak: a record weekly Niño 3.4 of 3.3°C, fires that may run into November, and a 13 percent CPC chance of La Nina by mid-2027.
Agriculture emitted 135.6 Mt CO2e in 2022. Farm practices and removals could deliver about ten times the Second NDC’s sector target, and Permentan 18/2026 now gives rice, livestock, estate crops and biochar a route to carbon credits.
Hotspots, burned area and fire emissions since January: 1,224,060 hotspots to October 17 and 673 Mt CO2e to October 15, two thirds from peat and 74 percent of 2015 at the same date.
Indonesia’s conservation estate in the 2026 season: 2,067 high-confidence hotspots inside the estate, ten sites carrying 70 percent of them, and legal protection tracking none of it.
The 1H26 Outlook: an energy shock and a record-hot planet converge on the same six months.
Indonesia, the health price of the 2026 fires.
Indonesia, January 1 to August 26.
Kalimantan, August 13 to 22.
The 2026 fire season, week of August 13 to 20.
The daily read sits alongside the dated series
Where the Outlook takes six months and a fact sheet takes one event, the Daily 360 screens the day's coverage and carries three highlights.