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Land-use optimization for food security, bioenergy and forest conservation in Indonesia

Claire V. Squire, Jiehong Lou, Kyle J. Parker, Molly A. Schreier, Thomas C. Hilde, Agus Sari, Lauren C. Lohff, Kriti Shah and Nathan Hultman · Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, and Landscape Indonesia

Indonesia is pursuing a 50 percent biodiesel blend and rice self-sufficiency at the same time. This paper maps what both targets would take in land, and finds they compete for the same ground.

Using a high-resolution land cover map, multicriteria evaluation and production scenario modelling, the authors quantify the spatial trade-offs between forest conservation, food security and biofuel expansion. Meeting the B50 target by 2030 would require converting 4.85 to 8.55 million hectares; the rice self-sufficiency goal a further 2.3 million, with notable overlap between the food and energy production zones. Associated emissions run to 360–3,753 MtCO₂e for oil palm and 509–1,297 MtCO₂e for rice — enough to surpass historic emissions events and undermine Indonesia's climate commitments.

The conclusion is a call for integrated land-use planning, and for policy frameworks that resolve the trade-off between food and energy production rather than pursuing each target in isolation.

Read at Nature Sustainability →