Floods After Fires
The modeled impacts of the 2026 super El Niño and the probable super La Nina that follows on the Indonesian economy.
The paper updates Fire on the Horizon with the events of February to mid-October 2026, checks the June prognosis against them, and extends the analysis to the La Nina that frequently follows a strong El Niño. Run from weak to record intensity, the model puts the net damage of an El Niño year followed by a La Nina year at 3.5 percent of GDP under a strong cycle, 4.6 percent under a super cycle, and 7.1 percent under a record cycle, or $47 billion to $97 billion. Damage in the dry year raises damage in the wet year, and this compound effect adds about a tenth to the cost of the cycle.
The analysis runs on ENSONINAID26, which adds a wet chain of extreme rain, cyclones, floods, and landslides to the dry chain of drought, fire, and haze, and links the two phases through nine cross-phase channels. An integrated adaptation portfolio would avoid close to half of the net damage at a benefit–cost ratio of 1.7 to 2.5; early warning and peatland rewetting return the most per rupiah.
The modeled impacts of the 2026 super El Niño on the Indonesian economy — the indirect wave costs more than the scorched fields. Retitled in October 2026 from “Fire in the Horizon” for grammatical correctness. Includes the ENSOID26-V2 model.
Retiring Cirebon-1 would ripple upstream to the coal-producing provinces — and international finance alone will not cover the socio-economic cost.
The economic burden on Indonesia of the Middle-East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Includes the ESHOCKID26 model.
A scoping study on using transition credits to shift captive, off-grid coal-fired power plants to renewables.
Strengthening traceability, smallholder inclusion, and landscape monitoring systems — with cases from Indonesia and Malaysia, nested carbon accounting, and the financing architecture to pay for it. Editorial team: Agus P. Sari, Niken Pradonawati, Putri A. Agustina, Bernardinus Steni.
Rapid assessment of possible long-term ecological and socio-economic recovery in flood-affected areas in Aceh — a jurisdictional landscape approach linking watershed restoration to reconstruction finance.
Fundamental reform for a sustainable, affordable, equitable, and low-carbon power market in Indonesia.
Increasing resilience through nature-based recovery in Aceh, North Sumatera, and West Sumatera.
Tripling renewables and doubling the pace of efficiency improvement by 2030 in Indonesia. Tripling is already in the baseline — the binding problem is coal capacity doubling alongside it. With the Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland.
Siak, Riau, Jurisdictional Investment Outlook 2022 — investment opportunities across the district under the Green Siak roadmap, and the blended financing structure behind them.
Land-use optimization for food security, bioenergy and forest conservation in Indonesia
Indonesia is pursuing a 50 percent biodiesel blend and rice self-sufficiency at the same time. This paper maps what both targets would cost in land, and where the two collide. Claire V. Squire, Jiehong Lou, Kyle J. Parker, Molly A. Schreier, Thomas Hertel and others.
The Diplomat.
Climate Policy, vol. 24 no. 1. Erik Haites, Paolo Bertoldi, Michael König, Christopher Bataille, Felix Creutzig, Dipak Dasgupta, Stéphane de la Rue du Can, Smail Khennas, Yong-Gun Kim, Lars J. Nilsson, Joyashree Roy and Agus Sari. On the emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors — aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper, petroleum refining — where mitigation costs are highest.
Chapter 12 in Climate Change Research, Policy and Actions in Indonesia: Science, Adaptation and Mitigation (Springer Climate), eds. Riyanti Djalante, Joni Jupesta and Edvin Aldrian. Agus P. Sari, Alue Dohong and Budi Wardhana.
Papua Holds Indonesia’s Largest Burn Scar of 2026
Burn scar ranks Papua first in 2026, while hotspot counts still rank Kalimantan first. MapBiomas Fire mapped 313,777 hectares burned in the six Papua provinces from January to September, 28 percent of the national 1,103,132 hectares and the largest of any region. Papua Selatan alone holds 253,274 hectares, and Merauke regency 192,479, 17 percent of the national total; Kimaam Island and Wasur National Park are among the worst-hit areas. Kalimantan still leads on hotspots, because its peat smoulders and is detected again and again, while Papua’s savanna and swamp grassland burn wide and fast.
Carbon Markets in Indonesian Agriculture
Emissions, targets, methodologies and the new rules for agricultural carbon offsets. Agriculture emitted 135.6 million metric tons of CO2e in 2022, 9.8 percent of national emissions including FOLU; rice fields are the largest source, at 35 percent. The Second NDC asks the sector to cut 4.2 to 4.9 million metric tons a year below current policy by 2035. Farm practices could cut about 37 million metric tons a year, and regenerative agriculture, agroforestry and biochar could remove about 13 million more, ten times that need.
The nine LTKL districts and fire: 5.3 percent of Indonesia’s land, 0.9 percent of the 2026 burned area, and Siak’s 99.5 percent fall in burned area from 2015 to 2023.
Fire inside 29 of 39 Verra carbon projects released an estimated 16.7 Mt CO2e in 2026, 45 percent of a year of their expected credits; buffers cover about a quarter of the loss.
The 2026 El Niño near its peak: a record weekly Niño 3.4 of 3.3°C, fires that may run into November, and a 13 percent CPC chance of La Nina by mid-2027.
Hotspots, burned area and fire emissions since January: 1,224,060 hotspots to October 17 and 673 Mt CO2e to October 15, two thirds from peat and 74 percent of 2015 at the same date.
Indonesia’s conservation estate in the 2026 season: 2,067 high-confidence hotspots inside the estate, ten sites carrying 70 percent of them, and legal protection tracking none of it.
Indonesia, the health price of the 2026 fires.
Indonesia, January 1 to August 26.
Kalimantan, August 13 to 22.
The 2026 fire season, week of August 13 to 20.
The 1H26 Outlook: the fire season ahead and the fuel-price exposure behind it.
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